Fantasy DONK

My next post is arguably the most boring but something really irked me in a draft I was a part of this last week. One of the owners took a kicker in the 7th round. I didn’t say 17th, this joker took him before he had a backup wr or rb. This in turn inspired my post. Kickers should not be taken till the last round if I was commishof a league any member that takes a kicker before the last two rounds gets put on double secret probation. Here is my reasoning, kickers cannot win you a league, I understand Gostkowski a few years ago put up monster numbers but I guarantee you the owner competed with the team that had LT or manning. Also the math proves it all there are 32 teams in the NFL and most fantasy leagues have 10 or 12 teams which means even if you don’t like your kicker there are going to be 20 other starting kickers to choose from. My only other thing is I am not going to invest in a high pick in a kicker so I can open a roster spot for him on his bye week. I believe in disposing of a kicker on his bye week and picking up a kicker that has already had his. For instance taking a Ryan Longwell which has a bye week in week nine and dropping him after week 4 to pick up Neil Rackers, because he had his bye week in week 4 and can play 13 more games without having to sit. Kickers are important can’t tell you how many times I have won and lost because a team needed 5 points on the Monday night game and the kicker has a 6 point game. No kicker is going to average double digit point games this year apif you surround your self with great picks in the first 12 rounds you could have Ray Finkle as your kicker and still take the W. Drafting season is upon us, get prepped and don’t be the donk that takes Janikowski with your third round pick.

You really want to take these guys in the 7th round?

 In the first part of my draft series, I wanted to bring up a very important topic, handcuffing (and I am not speaking about Pacman Jones). Handcuffing is grabbing a premier back and then grabbing his back up in the later rounds. Fantasy owners do this to ensure if a guy like Adrian Peterson goes down they have Chester Taylor to pick up all of his carries. But this year especially handcuffing is not as easy as in years past. In the last few years you took Ladanian Tomlinson you followed it up with Darren Sproles, or when Brian Westbrook got a little banged up last year you had Correll Buckhalter on the bench just in case. But with the evolution of the two running back system how exactly do you handcuff? Don’t get me wrong if I could have started both Chris Johnson and Lendall White every game I would have been very successful but with more and more teams switching to the two back system do you try to grab both guys and then handcuff the third? I don’t agree with this idea I think you take a gamble on one of the backs and then look to grab someone else. For example the most successful combo last year was Jonathan Stewart and Deangelo “where the hell as he been the last three years” Williams. I think if your lucky enough to take Williams grab him and then don’t feel like you have to take Stewart in the next few rounds, if he falls to round 5 or round 6 great but don’t feel obligated to grab both backs. Now the two back system is ok but the stable running back system is a nightmare. For instance, the Denver Broncos, who is fantasy worthy on this team? Moreno who doesn’t have an NFL touch or the other 9 guys they have in the organization. The Patriots and the Cardinals are also ones to be nervous about. Although a lot of backs are worthy of handcuffs I have compiled my list of must have handcuffs that you would be crazy not to take later in the draft. If you sink your first pick into a running back you handcuff him to hedge your bets. Good luck all during this crazy draft season.

Must Have Handcuffs:

Atlanta Falcons Michael Turner

Handcuff: Jerious Norwood

Michael Turner is a flat out stud, I loved him from when he was with the San Diego Chargers, but I think a lot more teams are going to be closing the box and making Matt Ryan do it himself. Turner flat out demolished the NFC South teams and made the Falcons contenders. Turner had A LOT of carries last year and most times that does not translate very good the following year, i.e. Larry Johnson last year. In a lot of mock drafts he is listed as the #2 running back. I believe he deserves this hype after last year, but if you sink the number 2 pick into him it makes Jerious Norwood a must handcuff.

Buffalo Bills Marshawn Lynch:

Handcuff: Fred Jackson, Dominick Rhodes:

Lynch is out the first three games and I think Jackson is going to get a majority of those carries. Rhodes might steal a couple of touchdowns away from F-Jack but I still think if you take Lynch, make sure you get Jackson.

Minnesota Vikings Adrian Peterson:

Handcuff: Chester Taylor

Taylor is a solid running back but is stock is down so much after AP’s unreal season that he should fall to the later rounds somewhere around round 9 or 10. Taylor isn’t capable of AP numbers but Peterson is not the most durable guy in the world so make sure that if you have “All Day” on your squad you grab Chester Taylor.

St. Louis Rams Steven Jackson:

Handcuff: Antonio Pittman

Everyone knows how poor the Rams are. Everyone also knows that every play they want to get the ball in Steven Jackson’s hands. Rightfully so, the dude is a stud but that many touches can wear on any running back and which is why that if you have a lot of extra roster spots, Pittman is a must have even if it is in your last round of the draft. Pittman is not a threat to go anywhere in the draft but if something happens to Jackson, you better believe Pittman is going to be the first one off the waiver wire.

I want to thank all of you that followed my Fantasy Football blog last year I got a lot of support and great comments from a lot of you. I am very excited for the new season coming up, last year I did not right as much as I should have and my dedication to the blog was as dedicated as the Broncos to tackling a running back.

I am geared up for this year and am really looking forward to several posts and touching base with all of you guys.

We are in the middle of the season which means one thing, bye weeks. This is fantasy code for picking up guys that were not on anybodys draft board
at the beginning of the season. If your team has multiple guys on the same bye here are a few tips.

Match it up
When looking for bye week replacements keep in mind the favorable defensive matchups week by week. A few teams that have struggled on defense this year are
Detroit, St. Louis, San Francico, Kansas City, and Denver. It would be better to pick up a player that is playing against one of these teams.

War of Attrition
Guys are getting banged up on a weekly basis. It is your job as a fantasy owner to pick your spots on who to pick up and how to fit holes that injuries have left.
Best advice is to find guys that are really struggling with injuries. Guys like Willy Parker and Brian Westbrook have been injured over the last 2 years so their back ups, Mewelde Moore and Correll Buckhalter would be great additions. You can throw Dominic Rhodes as he will fill in for Joseph Addai for awhile.

Find teams that are successful at what they do best
Arizona will throw the ball for 300 yards a game whether they suit up Fitzgerald and Bouldin or two guys from the assisted living home. That is why when Bouldin went down Steve Breaston has been such a huge add. The moral of the story is if a team is great at running the ball i.e. Denver with Michael Pittman, Philadelphia with Correl Buckhalter stepping in, or Dominick Hixon stepping in for the NY Giants a few weeks ago find replacements to teams strengths. Your not going to want to pick up a rb from Detroit or Cincinatti if a guy goes down. Or a receiver from Baltimore if Derrick Mason
goes down. 

We are in the middle of the season let the cream rise to the top!

I am not going to beat the knee of the dead horse of the weekend. Yes everyone is aware of Tom Brady and the injury he suffered so that is the last I will mention it. But what about some of the other role players that are going to miss some action. One in particular is Nate Burleson of the Seahawks, with Deion Branch still rehabbing he was on his way to a solid season leading a young wide receiving core which is now depleted. How does someone replace Burleson if he was a 3rd wideout on the fantasy team or first off the bench? Do they look down the line at the Seahawks that are going to get Burleson’s catches? I don’t really think that is the best option, the Seahawks looked a hot mess and those 75 to 90 catches Burleson could have had this season are going to be split up among 4 guys.

So who does look good at wideout then? If you have a chance to grab Eddie Royal get on your leagues site and do it, the guy is obviously not going to put up 150 and a touchdown every week with Marshall opposite him but he will be good for 4 to 6 catches and the occasional touchdown.

Another interesting situation is the Philadelphia Eagles WR situation same boat as Seattle but whole different ocean. Both Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis are going to miss time for the Eagles, but guys like Hank Baskett, DeSean Jackson, and Greg Lewis put up great stats, so who is the best pick up? DeSean Jackson, the Eagles are really high on the rookie and he led the team in yards and although he did not score he was consistent Baskett and Lewis both made most of their yards on one play.

Week 1 unexpected WR Winners:

Eddie Royal WR Denver Broncos: We will defiantly be ordering a Royal with cheese all season

Philadelphia Eagles WR’s: DeSean Jackson is the one that we like out of this group

Week 1 unexpected Losers:

Nate Burleson: A ton of upside for the WR but out for the season is unfortunately how his season will end

Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown WR’s Philadelphia Eagles: They could take the season off Donovan McNabb has this young core looking really good hope they don’t mess the chemistry up

Ex-Cincinatti Bengals running back Rudi Johnson has shaken up the fantasy world over the past week. Going from a risky middle round pick as the starter of the Bengals, to a worthless pick in the draft not worthy of a no 4 rb when they cut him, to now being a Detroit Lion who were impressed enough with his workout to sign him to a one year contract. So who does Johnson’s game of musical teams 1 week from the start of season influence? Just like any game there are winners and losers.

Winners:
Chris Perry Bengals rb: Gets the starting nod for Cinci and has the chance to put up some big numbers because of the great offense posses. One thing that has to happen is that passing offense needs to stay healthy, Carson Palmer, T.J. Houzmanzadeh, and Chad Javon Ocho Cinco (Johnson for the rest of us when we remember when he was sane) are all banged up before thr first snap of the regular season. If these guys can stay healthy no one will be paying attention to the run. Perry is a former first round pick and will show why this year.

Kenny Watson Bengals rb: Watson filled in for Johnson last year when he went down with a hamstring injury and put up decent numbers and saved a lot of fantasy owners during those tough injury plagued middle weeks. Don’t plan on Watson putting up those numbers as 2007, but he has experience on his side which Perry doesn’t. Cincinatti knows what Watson is capable of doing and might turn to him to take 20+ carries if Perry doesn’t produce.

Losers:
Kevin Smith: Lions RB: It’s hard to say loser and Kevin Smith in the same sentance. He is a rookie that is going to get the start in a revamped “run happy” offense. But he loses in this situation because he had no competition prior to Johnson’s arrival.   Johnson is going to take awhile to learn the playbook which gives Smith the opportunity to shine. But once Johnson gets it they will split carries.

Tatum Bell: The ultimate loser in the situation. Bell has done everythin in his power to get released from the Lions over the past year. From complaining to management about his playing time, showing up overweight to camp, and not caring that a rookie from Central Florida would take the starting running back spot that was defaultly left to him. With Johnson’s signing after the shaping of the 53 man roster the Lions were forced to drop a player to add a player and this situation they trimmed the fat.